Ivan’s Blog

On the eve of yet another crucial elections, Serbia and the European Union have signed the SAA (Stabilization and Association Agreement) that has been negotiated since 2005. This type of agreement is standard with potential future member states and denotes an important milestone in the country’s accession to the EU. The agreement does not include Kosovo, a breakaway province governed by the UN since 1999. In addition, the implementation of the agreement has been put on hold until the full cooperation with the ICTY (including the arrest of General Ratko Mladic, indicted for genocide in the Srebrenica area) is achieved.

The timing of the agreement has been interpreted as a strong signal of support to the pro-Western Democratic party of the ruling president Boris Tadic. The caretaker Prime Minister Kostunica, however, had little praise for the agreement due to the recognition of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence by a number of EU member states. The two parties had been the mainstay of the former government that dissolved in March over the future of country’s strategic direction in the aftermath of Kosovo parliament’s declaration. While both parties oppose independence for Kosovo, the Democrats want to see Serbia in the European Union, whereas Kostunica and the opposition nationalist Radical Party are proponents of stronger ties with Russia - Serbia’s traditional ally who also oppose Kosovo’s independence.

According to the latest polls, Democrats and Radicals are neck to neck although it is unlikely that either party will win the majority needed to form the government. A post election coalition with one of the smaller parties (including Kostunica’s DSS, the party of ex-president Milosevic SPS as well as LDP of Cedomir Jovanovic - the only party that accepts Kosovo’s independence) will likely be needed to elect the new government. Depending on the results, Serbia could find itself closer or further away from the West determining country’s direction for the forseeable future.